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Can Active Fund Managers Consistently Outperform the Market? (Part Two)
Whilst some active fund managers have delivered exceptional returns, the data show that they are few and far between. In this follow-up to my previous post, we explore whether true skill exists in active management—and if so, whether ordinary investors can realistically access it. We examine the case of Baillie Gifford, Warren Buffett’s performance, and SPIVA data to assess whether beating the market is a repeatable skill or a rare exception.
Good financial decisions aren’t about predicting the future—they’re about following a sound process today.
In investing, outcomes are noisy. Short-term performance often reflects randomness, not skill. Yet fund managers continue to pitch five-year track records as if they prove anything. They don’t.
As Ken French puts it, a five-year chart ‘tells you nothing’. The real skill lies in filtering out the noise—evaluating strategy, incentives, costs, and behavioural fit.
Don’t chase what worked recently. Stick with what works reliably.