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The Value Premium: Why ‘Cheap’ Stocks Have Tended to Win Long-term, but Why the Premium Often Feels ‘Dead’
Investment Theory Kieran Cook Investment Theory Kieran Cook

The Value Premium: Why ‘Cheap’ Stocks Have Tended to Win Long-term, but Why the Premium Often Feels ‘Dead’

Value is the tendency for cheap stocks, those trading on low valuations relative to fundamentals, to outperform expensive growth stocks over the long run. In the factor investing world, value is not a story first and a regression second. It is a portfolio idea: own the cheaper end of the market and underweight the priciest end, then accept the return pattern that comes with that positioning.

And that return pattern is the whole point. Value’s history is lumpy, with long stretches where it looks broken, followed by sharp recoveries that often arrive after investors have lost patience. That is why value is so hard to hold, because it can feel like you are wrong for years. Ironically, this is also why it can persist, either because it is genuinely riskier in the bad economic states that many investors fear, or because investors repeatedly overpay for glamour and underpay for dullness until expectations mean revert.

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How Fama and French Build Portfolios
Investment Theory Kieran Cook Investment Theory Kieran Cook

How Fama and French Build Portfolios

The Fama–French models begin with portfolio construction, not regressions. The idea is to sort stocks on characteristics thought to be related to expected returns, form a small number of broad and diversified portfolios, and then study how average returns vary across those portfolios. The familiar factors are built directly from these same sorts, which is why the approach is so transparent and replicable. A simple 2×3 sort, for example, splits stocks into Small and Big, then into Low, Neutral, and High on a second characteristic, producing six portfolios whose return patterns act as a clean diagnostic.

Once the portfolios are formed, factor construction and testing are deliberately mechanical. Long–short factors compare High versus Low or Small versus Big whilst averaging across the independent variable to control for it. When more detail is needed, the same logic scales up to 5×5 sorts, producing 25 portfolios that show whether return patterns are smooth and monotonic rather than driven by a single breakpoint. These portfolios then serve as test assets in regressions, where the key question is whether factor exposures explain the differences in average returns between the portfolios created by the sorts, leaving little systematic alpha behind.

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Sharpe’s Arithmetic, Revisited: When ‘Average Active’ Might Beat ‘Average Passive’ Before Costs
Investment Theory Kieran Cook Investment Theory Kieran Cook

Sharpe’s Arithmetic, Revisited: When ‘Average Active’ Might Beat ‘Average Passive’ Before Costs

Sharpe’s ‘Arithmetic of Active Management’ is powerful because it is an accounting identity, not a claim about skill. If passive investors hold the market portfolio, then everyone else, collectively, must hold the same market portfolio too. That means, before costs, the average actively managed pound must earn the same return as the average passively managed pound. After costs, active underperforms in aggregate because it bears higher fees, turnover, and trading frictions.

The wrinkle is that the market portfolio is not static, and passive implementation is not continuous. Corporate actions reshape the investable set, whilst index trackers rebalance on rules and schedules, creating brief mismatches with the ‘instantaneous’ market. In that more realistic setting, average active can slightly outperform average passive before costs by intermediating those flows, without any special forecasting skill. But competition and costs still mean the core practical conclusion remains: passive tends to win after fees.

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Nominal vs Real Yield Curves: Understanding Inflation Protection
Practical Investing Kieran Cook Practical Investing Kieran Cook

Nominal vs Real Yield Curves: Understanding Inflation Protection

Nominal and real yield curves often appear similar, which leads some investors to assume they say the same thing about interest rates and inflation. In reality, nominal gilt yields include compensation for inflation, whereas index-linked gilt yields are quoted after inflation has already been accounted for. The gap between the two, breakeven inflation, is not a clean read of future inflation because it also reflects liquidity conditions, the value placed on inflation protection and distortions in the index-linked market.

These differences matter for returns. Inflation-linked gilts provide inflation-adjusted cashflows, but their prices remain highly sensitive to changes in real yields. When real yields rise, they typically fall more sharply than equivalent nominal gilts, and any CPI uplift takes time to offset those losses. Inflation linkers work best when inflation risk increases more than expected, not merely when inflation is high. Understanding this distinction helps investors avoid disappointment and use inflation-linked gilts more effectively.

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